Networks

Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience

After Disaster Network

‘Growing capabilities for understanding and dealing with the aftermath of disasters’

IHRR has launched a new initiative to specifically focus on ’After Disaster’.

We are interested in the foundations that support psychological, social, institutional, and economic ‘recovering’. We want to learn how to support and manage aftermaths without creating conditions that foster post-disaster crises. The timeframe of the aftermath can be long, with many people ‘living with’ disaster and post-disaster conditions for an extended period of time.

Our aspirations are to:

put communities at the heart of dealing with the aftermath,
ensure preparedness is about material, social and human capital not plans,
embrace collaboration with as wide a range of people as possible,
embrace unpredictability and uncertainty,
see the aftermath of disasters through a new lens that gets away from disciplinary silos and poorly defined terms and practices.

The After Disaster Network is going to develop a series of activities aimed at exploring challenges of dealing with the aftermath of a disaster and sharing learning about how to support communities at such time.

The After Disasters Network has been founded by:

Professor Louise Bracken, Wilson Chair in Risk Research and Ex-Director of IHRR
Kate Cochrane, Head of Emergency Management, Falklands Islands and Professor in Practice IHRR
Neil Denton,Independent Community Mediator and Professor in Practice IHRR
Dr Lucy Easthope, Senior Fellow of the Emergency Planning College and Professor in Practice IHRR
Dr Flora Cornish, Associate Professor at LSE and Professor in Practice IHRR

Action on Natural Disasters

IHRR Forecasting Laboratory

Logo of the IHRR Forecasting Laboratory

The IHRR Forecasting Laboratory aims to advance our understanding of Forecasting, Foresight and strategic Planning methods and systems, to help make better Decisions in the context of Risk and Uncertainty driven by natural and anthropogenic activities.

Broader Scope of the Lab

The IHRR forecasting lab comprises senior and junior academics and PGR (PhD & DBA) students with experience in various sectors. The forecasting lab facilitates interdisciplinary collaboration to advance the area of forecasting and beyond.

Our members have experience in the energy sector (oil and gas, hydropower), banking sector (ESG, FinTech & Risk), legal industry (corporate & LegalTech), leadership in different types of organisations and, of course, forecasting.

We hold weekly meetings to present our research, create research proposals to obtain funding and discuss various issues we might face in a collaborative environment.

We are open to collaboration with external partners. Please get in touch by emailing Professor Konstantinos Nikolopoulos at kostas.nikolopoulos@durham.ac.uk

Impact

Professor Nikolopoulos’ research won the Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) award for the Best EJOR Paper 2023 on Theory and Methodology: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Sushil Punia, Andreas Schäfers, Christos Tsinopoulos, Chrysovalantis Vasilakis. Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions.

Professor Nikolopoulos’ research has been cited by academics and implemented by practitioners. The most notable example is Uber. Uber has applied Nikolopoulos’ Theta models worldwide since 2017 for their financial forecasts with an efficiency saving of approximately USD 750,000,000 (04-2020) per annum.

You can find more information on this by clicking on the following links:

https://www.uber.com/en-GR/blog/forecasting-introduction/

https://www.bangor.ac.uk/research/research-themes/arts-humanities-business/theta-method

Projects

The lab director has successfully obtained funding (along with colleagues from other European institutions) to conduct cutting-edge research in Radioactivity Monitoring in Ocean Ecosystems. RAMONES offers a radical vision of science-enabled cutting-edge solutions in instrumentation and robotic sensing platforms towards a step change in Radioactivity Monitoring in Ocean Ecosystems.

For further information on the project, please use this link: https://ramones-project.eu.

Publications

Some of our most recent publications in academic journals:

Kamal Sanguri, Sabyasachi Patra, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Sushil Punia (2024) Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts, International Journal of Production Research, 62:5, 1663-1685, DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2023.2199435

Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Forecasting the effective reproduction number during a pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, governmental decisions and economic implications, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Volume 35, Issue 1, January 2024, Pages 65–81, https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad023

Alroomi, A., Karamatzanis, G., Nikolopoulos, K., Tilba, A., Xiao, S. (2022). Fathoming empirical forecasting competitions' winners. International Journal of Forecasting, 38, 1519-1525;

Lab Member Profiles

	Dr Konstantinos (Kostas) Nikolopoulos Dr Konstantinos (Kostas) Nikolopoulosis the founder and director of the IHRR Forecasting Lab. He is the Professor in Business Information Systems and Analytics in Durham University Business School. Dr Nikolopoulos studied Electrical and Computer Engineering at the National Technical University of Athens (ΕΜΠ) in Greece, (DEng 2002, BEng 1997) and completed the International Teachers Programme (ITP) at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University (2011). His research interests are Forecasting, Analytics and Information Systems. Dr Nikolopoulos was Professor of Business Analytics/Decision Sciences at Bangor University (2010-2020), and the College Director of Research for the College of Business, Law, Education, and Social Sciences (2011-2018). Before that he was Lecturer and Senior Lecturer in Decision Sciences at the University of Manchester, and Senior Research Associate at Lancaster University (2004-05) and the National Technical University of Athens (1996-2004).
	Shujun Xiao Shujun Xiao is the Lab Manager and a PhD candidate of Durham University Business School. She received her B.A. in International Trade Practice from Shandong University of Finance and Economics, B.A. Economics with Management from Edinburgh Napier University, MSc. International Finance from Edinburgh Napier University, and MBA Management from Bangor University. She has work experience in tourism and the hospitality industry. Her research focuses on business model transformation and post-pandemic resilience in tourism sectors.
	Georgios Karamatzanis Georgios is an Assistant Professor in Strategy & Entrepreneurship at Norwich Business School. His research focuses on corporate governance, data analytics, and the impact of technology on the board of directors. He also researches Legal tech, pension governance, and stakeholder governance. He holds an LLB from Lancaster University and has completed the Legal Practice Course (LPC/LLM). He is also a PhD student at Durham University Business School. Georgios has served as the Institute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience forecasting lab manager at Durham University and is now an external lab member.
	Alexandros Kalantzopoulos has lived and worked in London since 2014. He has two MSc degrees from Bayes Business School and Athens University of Business and recently has been accepted into the Durham PhD Program. Alexandros has been working in the banking industry from 2015 and has worked in various positions as a quantitative researcher/developer. For the last four years, he has worked as a VP - Model Validator for Barclays Bank.
	Aws Hamo Younes Aws Hamo is a DBA candidate at both Durham University Business School and Emlyon Business School. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Mosul and an MBA from Aston Business School. Aws is the founder and CEO of ADAD Engineering Services with 12 years experience in oil and gas, power, water, and petrochemical sectors in the Middle East with a focus on the Iraq market. His research focuses on International Business Strategies and Joint Ventures.
	Samantha Yarwood Connecting people to accelerate impact. Enabling leaders to embrace and lead change, supporting them to thrive in complexity and uncertainty in order to have real impact in the world. Samantha Yarwood is a seeker of new knowledge and connections who has translated her 20+ years of experience as a global leader, super connector, speaker and entrepreneur (marketer and innovator) to designing and delivering transformational solutions for an array of customers, from startups to blue-chip organisations globally to drive meaningful environmental and social change. Her purpose in life is to act as a catalyst/tool for change to help individuals and organisations reimagine the possible, positively impacting the world. She believes that leadership grows – and that we need to cultivate as much of it as we can to truly transform our world(s). She supports leaders at all levels and sizes of organisations by combining research and practice to help people grow on the job. Samantha holds an Executive Masters of Change from INSEAD in France and is currently working on her Doctorate in Business Administration at Durham University and Emlyon.
	Marcus McHaffie Marcus McHaffie is a DBA Candidate in the global joint program between Durham and EM-Lyon. With over 20 years of experience in financial markets in Europe and Asia, he sponsors large programs of work in areas such as derivatives, treasury and trading. He has a Bachelor of Economics from Queen’s University in Ontario and has also participated in executive education at IMD in Lausanne. His research areas include decision sciences and situations of adversity, and he is interested in capabilities, adaptability, and resilience. Coming from an industry inherently connected to risk, he also consults and researches within the risk management domain. He currently works for a large financial institution with an emphasis on ESG.
	Sola Sonuga Sola Sonuga is a Post Graduate Researcher (PGR) in the Durham-Emlyon Global Doctor of Business Administration (GDBA) programme. A member of the GDBA 2021 cohort, Sola is researching financial technology (FinTech) firms with a particular focus on firm failure prediction and the effects of network/networking capability, scaling, and strategic alliances on firm performance. With over three decades' worth of experience in the chemicals, automotive, telecommunications, mining, and financial services industries, he currently works as a director in the finance function of a global bank and is the Third-Party Risk Management (TPRM) lead.
	Richard Boyce Richard Boyce joined Ortec Finance in February 2019 as the Managing Director of Ortec Finance’s North American offices. Richard’s current focus is increasing the Ortec Finance presence in North-America and to better serve North American clients. Richard is responsible for managing institutional clients, both asset managers and owners. Prior to Ortec Finance, Richard spent time as a financial analyst for State Street and as an Account Manager for Thomson Reuters/Refinitiv in Toronto, Canada. Richard holds a BA in Economics from Fredonia State University, and an MBA in Finance from Durham University. Richard’s DBA research will be focused on the strategic growth of FinTech organization in times of economic uncertainty.
Visiting members
	Apostolos Kourtis Apostolos Kourtis is the Head of the Finance Group and an Associate Professor in Finance at Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia (UEA). He is also a visiting instructor in Blockchain/Decentralized Finance at the University of Nicosia. His research has led to the development of cutting-edge forecasting and optimisation approaches in financial decision-making. He has published papers in high-profile peer-reviewed journals, such as the Journal of Banking and Finance and the Journal of Empirical Finance, while his articles have been featured in several popular media outlets, including the Financial Times and the Telegraph. He holds a PhD in Finance from the Athens University of Economics and Business, an MSc in Applied and Computational Mathematics from the University of Oxford and a BSc in Mathematics from the University of Athens.
	Dr. Vasileios (Vassilis) Bougioukos Dr. Vasileios (Vassilis) Bougioukos is working as a research associate at IHRR Forecasting lab. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Bangor University (Wales, UK). His research focuses mainly on social investments, labour market reforms and judgmental forecasting. Moreover, he holds an MSc in European Political Economy from the London School of Economics and earned a bachelor's degree from the Athens University of Economics and Business in the field of International and European Economic Studies. Vasileios has offered teaching and research support in various institutes around the UK, such as Bangor University, SOAS, the London Business School and the London School of Economics. He is currently an Adjunct Associate Professor at Notre Dame University, London Campus. Vasileios also has international experience, as he has spent time working in China in various academic positions.